1. Josh Allen and Buffalo's offense can match the Rams point for point. Buffalo enters this matchup at 3–1, leading the NFL in scoring and third-down conversion rate. With Josh Allen at quarterback and James Cook establishing the running game, the Bills have the offensive firepower to keep pace with Matthew Stafford. Getting more than a field goal with an offense this productive is appealing. 2. The Rams have injury concerns, and Buffalo can exploit them. Los Angeles has several key players dealing with injuries, including Davante Adams, Aaron Donald, and Quentin Lake. Meanwhile, Buffalo's Greg Rousseau has already recorded six sacks. If the Bills generate pressure on Stafford and limit explosive passing plays, they have a legitimate opportunity to win outright.

1. Derrick Henry can keep Baltimore competitive even without Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson has officially been ruled out with an ankle injury, but Derrick Henry has already rushed for 374 yards and seven touchdowns through four games. Baltimore can lean on Henry to establish the running game, control possession, and take pressure off backup quarterback Tyler Huntley. Atlanta's defense will have to respect the run, which could help Baltimore keep this game close. 2. Baltimore is 3–1, and the market may be overreacting to Lamar's injury. This spread has shifted dramatically from Baltimore being favored by approximately six points to Atlanta being favored by 3.5. That's nearly a 10-point adjustment! The Ravens are still 3–1, while Atlanta is 2–2. Baltimore has also won seven of its last eight road games. Getting more than a field goal with this Ravens team is appealing.

1. San Francisco is undefeated and has one of the NFL's most efficient offenses. The 49ers enter Sunday at 4–0, averaging 30.5 points per game while allowing only 16. Brock Purdy has thrown for 1,007 yards, 11 touchdowns, and just one interception. San Francisco also leads the league in offensive EPA per play and success rate. Getting a full field goal with an undefeated team producing those numbers is appealing. 2. The 49ers' offensive line has been outstanding in pass protection. San Francisco is the only team in the NFL that hasn't allowed a sack this season. That's extremely important against Seattle's aggressive defense. If the offensive line continues protecting Purdy and Christian McCaffrey helps establish the running game, the 49ers have an opportunity to control possession and keep this divisional matchup close.

1. Arizona's defense has been getting absolutely torched. The Cardinals have lost three straight games, allowing more than 30 points in all three losses. That's a terrible matchup against Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Detroit's explosive offense. I believe the Lions can establish their running game early and take advantage of an Arizona defense that hasn't been able to stop opposing offenses 2. Arizona is missing a major offensive weapon, and Detroit is in a bounce-back spot. Marvin Harrison Jr. has reportedly been ruled out for Sunday, taking away one of Arizona's biggest receiving threats. Detroit is also coming off a disappointing 32–26 loss to Carolina. I expect Dan Campbell to have his team motivated to get back on track before its bye week.

1. Denver's offense hasn't been explosive enough to justify laying more than a field goal. The Broncos are averaging just 18.5 points per game, while Bo Nix has thrown only five touchdowns through four games. Denver is coming off a 24–14 loss to San Francisco, and I don't trust this offense to consistently separate from opponents. In a divisional matchup with a relatively low total of 42 points, getting 3.5 points with the home team is attractive. 2. Justin Herbert gives the Chargers a chance to win outright. Despite their 0–4 record, the Chargers have actually produced more total offensive yards than Denver this season. Herbert has 816 passing yards, compared to Nix's 819. With Denver missing star cornerback Patrick Surtain II, Herbert could have opportunities to attack the secondary and keep Los Angeles competitive.

1. Indianapolis has the more productive offense. The Colts are averaging 25.5 points per game, compared to Pittsburgh's 19.3. Indianapolis is also coming off a 30–13 victory over Washington, giving them back-to-back wins. Jonathan Taylor rushed for 95 yards and two touchdowns against the Commanders, and I believe his ability to establish the running game could help Indianapolis control the clock and keep Pittsburgh's offense on the sidelines. 2. Pittsburgh hasn't shown enough offensively to justify laying points. The Steelers are just 2–2, averaging under 20 points per game. Aaron Rodgers has seven touchdown passes but also four interceptions through four games. If Indianapolis can limit explosive plays and force Pittsburgh into obvious passing situations, the Colts have a legitimate opportunity to win outright.