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Buffalo Bills
@
Los Angeles Rams
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Oct 12, 8:05 PM |
Spread
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Buffalo Bills +3.5 |
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1. Josh Allen and Buffalo's offense can match the Rams point for point.
Buffalo enters this matchup at 3–1, leading the NFL in scoring and third-down conversion rate. With Josh Allen at quarterback and James Cook establishing the running game, the Bills have the offensive firepower to keep pace with Matthew Stafford. Getting more than a field goal with an offense this productive is appealing.
2. The Rams have injury concerns, and Buffalo can exploit them.
Los Angeles has several key players dealing with injuries, including Davante Adams, Aaron Donald, and Quentin Lake. Meanwhile, Buffalo's Greg Rousseau has already recorded six sacks. If the Bills generate pressure on Stafford and limit explosive passing plays, they have a legitimate opportunity to win outright. |
Wes |
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Minnesota Vikings
@
New Orleans Saints
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Oct 11, 1:00 PM |
Spread
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Minnesota Vikings -2.5 |
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1. Minnesota's defense is one of the best in the NFL.
The Vikings enter Sunday undefeated at 4–0, with a defense ranked No. 1 in the league. They've allowed just 51 points through four games, an average of 12.75 per contest. Against Tyler Shough and a Saints offense that has struggled with consistency, I like Minnesota's chances of creating pressure, forcing turnovers, and controlling field position.
2. The Vikings have the better record, and we only need them to win by a field goal.
Minnesota is 4–0, while New Orleans sits at 1–3. The Saints are coming off a rough loss to Atlanta, and their defense has struggled this season. Kevin O'Connell should have opportunities to get Kyler Murray and the Vikings offense moving against this secondary. We're laying less than a field goal with an undefeated football team. |
Wes |
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Cleveland Browns
@
New York Jets
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Oct 11, 1:00 PM |
Spread
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Cleveland Browns + 4.5 |
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1. Cleveland's defensive front could control this matchup.
The Browns have the personnel to pressure Geno Smith and disrupt an inconsistent Jets offense. New York ranks 22nd in total offense and 28th in rushing, and managed only 157 total yards against Chicago last week. If Cleveland forces long third downs, the Jets could struggle to build a lead.
2. Cleveland is playing better football, and you're getting generous points.
The Browns have won three straight games, including victories over Carolina and Pittsburgh, and enter Sunday 3–1. The Jets are 1–3. Cleveland has already shown it can win close games, with its last three victories coming by four, three and three points.
My projected score: Cleveland 20, New York 17. |
Wes |
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Philadelphia Eagles
@
Jacksonville Jaguars
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Oct 11, 9:00 AM |
Spread
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Philadelphia +7.5 |
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1. Philadelphia's defensive front can keep this game within one possession.
Jacksonville's offensive line has shown vulnerabilities in pass protection, particularly at left tackle. If Philadelphia can generate pressure on Trevor Lawrence without constantly blitzing, the Eagles have a chance to disrupt Jacksonville's passing rhythm, force third-and-long situations, and prevent the Jaguars from building a big lead.
2. You're getting more than a touchdown in what could be a lower-scoring game.
The betting total is around 42 points, and Philadelphia opened as a 1.5-point favorite before the line swung toward Jacksonville. That is a massive adjustment. Some of it is justified by injuries, but +7.5 gives you protection against a seven-point loss. A 24–17 Jacksonville victory would still cash your Eagles ticket.
The biggest concern: Philadelphia is without Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, and Marquise Brown, and its offensive line is severely depleted. Jacksonville's defense is allowing just 13.3 points per game, so there's a legitimate possibility the Eagles struggle to score.
My projected score: Jacksonville 23, Philadelphia 17.
I'd lean Eagles +7.5, but cautiously. I like the extra half-point above a touchdown, particularly if Philadelphia can control the pace and avoid turnovers. |
Wes |
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Baltimore Ravens
@
Atlanta Falcons
|
Oct 10, 8:15 PM |
Spread
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Baltimore Ravens +3.5 |
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1. Derrick Henry can keep Baltimore competitive even without Lamar Jackson.
Lamar Jackson has officially been ruled out with an ankle injury, but Derrick Henry has already rushed for 374 yards and seven touchdowns through four games. Baltimore can lean on Henry to establish the running game, control possession, and take pressure off backup quarterback Tyler Huntley. Atlanta's defense will have to respect the run, which could help Baltimore keep this game close.
2. Baltimore is 3–1, and the market may be overreacting to Lamar's injury.
This spread has shifted dramatically from Baltimore being favored by approximately six points to Atlanta being favored by 3.5. That's nearly a 10-point adjustment! The Ravens are still 3–1, while Atlanta is 2–2. Baltimore has also won seven of its last eight road games. Getting more than a field goal with this Ravens team is appealing. |
Wes |
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Chicago Bears
@
Green Bay Packers
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Oct 10, 1:00 PM |
OverUnder
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Over 45.5 |
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I like the Over 45.5 in this NFC North rivalry for two reasons.
1. Green Bay's offense has been producing points. The Packers are averaging 28 points per game, with Jordan Love already throwing for 1,041 yards and 8 touchdowns through four games. Chicago's defense is allowing 26.3 points per game, creating an opportunity for Green Bay to put up a big number at Lambeau Field.
I like the Over 45.5 in this NFC North rivalry for two reasons.
1. Green Bay's offense has been producing points. The Packers are averaging 28 points per game, with Jordan Love already throwing for 1,041 yards and 8 touchdowns through four games. Chicago's defense is allowing 26.3 points per game, creating an opportunity for Green Bay to put up a big number at Lambeau Field. |
Wes |
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San Francisco 49ers
@
Seattle Seahawks
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Oct 10, 1:00 PM |
Spread
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San Francisco 49ers +3 |
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1. San Francisco is undefeated and has one of the NFL's most efficient offenses.
The 49ers enter Sunday at 4–0, averaging 30.5 points per game while allowing only 16. Brock Purdy has thrown for 1,007 yards, 11 touchdowns, and just one interception. San Francisco also leads the league in offensive EPA per play and success rate. Getting a full field goal with an undefeated team producing those numbers is appealing.
2. The 49ers' offensive line has been outstanding in pass protection.
San Francisco is the only team in the NFL that hasn't allowed a sack this season. That's extremely important against Seattle's aggressive defense. If the offensive line continues protecting Purdy and Christian McCaffrey helps establish the running game, the 49ers have an opportunity to control possession and keep this divisional matchup close. |
Wes |
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Detroit Lions
@
Arizona Cardinals
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Oct 10, 1:00 PM |
Spread
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Detroit Lions -5.5 |
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1. Arizona's defense has been getting absolutely torched.
The Cardinals have lost three straight games, allowing more than 30 points in all three losses. That's a terrible matchup against Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Detroit's explosive offense. I believe the Lions can establish their running game early and take advantage of an Arizona defense that hasn't been able to stop opposing offenses
2. Arizona is missing a major offensive weapon, and Detroit is in a bounce-back spot.
Marvin Harrison Jr. has reportedly been ruled out for Sunday, taking away one of Arizona's biggest receiving threats. Detroit is also coming off a disappointing 32–26 loss to Carolina. I expect Dan Campbell to have his team motivated to get back on track before its bye week. |
Wes |
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Denver Broncos
@
Los Angeles Chargers
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Oct 10, 1:00 PM |
Spread
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Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 |
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1. Denver's offense hasn't been explosive enough to justify laying more than a field goal.
The Broncos are averaging just 18.5 points per game, while Bo Nix has thrown only five touchdowns through four games. Denver is coming off a 24–14 loss to San Francisco, and I don't trust this offense to consistently separate from opponents. In a divisional matchup with a relatively low total of 42 points, getting 3.5 points with the home team is attractive.
2. Justin Herbert gives the Chargers a chance to win outright.
Despite their 0–4 record, the Chargers have actually produced more total offensive yards than Denver this season. Herbert has 816 passing yards, compared to Nix's 819. With Denver missing star cornerback Patrick Surtain II, Herbert could have opportunities to attack the secondary and keep Los Angeles competitive. |
Wes |
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Indianapolis Colts
@
Pittsburgh Steelers
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Oct 10, 1:00 PM |
Spread
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Indianapolis Colts +2.5 |
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1. Indianapolis has the more productive offense.
The Colts are averaging 25.5 points per game, compared to Pittsburgh's 19.3. Indianapolis is also coming off a 30–13 victory over Washington, giving them back-to-back wins. Jonathan Taylor rushed for 95 yards and two touchdowns against the Commanders, and I believe his ability to establish the running game could help Indianapolis control the clock and keep Pittsburgh's offense on the sidelines.
2. Pittsburgh hasn't shown enough offensively to justify laying points.
The Steelers are just 2–2, averaging under 20 points per game. Aaron Rodgers has seven touchdown passes but also four interceptions through four games. If Indianapolis can limit explosive plays and force Pittsburgh into obvious passing situations, the Colts have a legitimate opportunity to win outright. |
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New York Giants
@
Washington Commanders
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Oct 10, 1:00 PM |
Moneyline
|
Washington Redskins MoneyLine |
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1. Washington desperately needs a win, and home-field advantage could make the difference.
The Commanders enter Sunday at 1–3, but their lone victory came at home against Seattle, winning 33–31. Now they return home for an NFC East divisional matchup against the 3–1 Giants. I like Washington's urgency in this spot, especially with the opportunity to avoid falling to 1–4.
2. We're taking the moneyline, so Washington doesn't need to win convincingly.
The Commanders are favored by approximately 3.5 points, with moneyline prices around -170 to -190. That means we don't need Washington to cover a field goal or win by multiple possessions. A one-point victory gets the job done. |
Wes |
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Houston Texans
@
Tennessee Titans
|
Oct 10, 1:00 PM |
Spread
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Tennessee Titans +7.5 |
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1. Tennessee's defense has been competitive despite its 0–4 record.
The Titans are allowing just 20.8 points per game, ranking among the NFL's top 10 defenses. Houston is also 0–4 and averaging only 21 points per game offensively. I have a hard time laying more than a touchdown with a winless Houston team against a Tennessee defense that's been keeping games competitive.
2. The Titans have been keeping games close, and we're getting more than a touchdown at home.
Tennessee has lost its last three games by just 4, 5, and 6 points. Meanwhile, Houston is 0–4 against the spread this season. With the total sitting at just 37.5 points, I like getting 7.5 points in what the market expects to be a relatively low-scoring divisional matchup. |
Wes |
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Las Vegas Raiders
@
New England Patriots
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Oct 10, 1:00 PM |
Spread
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Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 |
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1. New England's secondary is severely depleted.
The Patriots have ruled out starting cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis III, along with two backup corners. That's a major opportunity for Kirk Cousins, who already has 1,026 passing yards and 11 touchdowns through four games. Las Vegas has scored at least 26 points in every game this season, and I like its chances of exploiting New England's depleted secondary.
2. Maxx Crosby and the Raiders' pass rush could make life difficult for Drake Maye.
Maye has struggled with turnovers early this season, throwing seven interceptions through four games. New England has also experienced offensive-line protection issues. With Crosby leading an aggressive Raiders defensive front, Las Vegas has an opportunity to generate sacks, force mistakes, and keep this game within a field goal. |
Wes |
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Cincinnati Bengals
@
Miami Dolphins
|
Oct 10, 1:00 PM |
Spread
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Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 |
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1. Miami's offense has been one of the worst in football.
The Dolphins are 0–4 and haven't scored more than 13 points in a game this season. They're averaging just 11.5 points per game, and Cincinnati's defense ranks third in the NFL in sacks. Against Malik Willis and an inconsistent Miami offensive line, I like the Bengals' chances of creating pressure, forcing mistakes, and giving Joe Burrow additional possessions.
2. Joe Burrow gives Cincinnati a significant advantage, even without Chase or Higgins.
Burrow threw for over 400 yards against Jacksonville, and Cincinnati has shown it has capable depth receivers in Dohnte Meyers and Mitch Tinsley. With Miami struggling defensively, I believe Burrow can move the football even if both star receivers are unavailable. |
Wes |
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Pittsburgh Steelers
@
Cleveland Browns
|
Oct 01, 8:15 PM |
Moneyline
|
Pittsburgh Steelers |
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After weighing everything, here's where I currently land: Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Vs Cleveland Browns 17
My pick to win: Pittsburgh Steelers
I give Pittsburgh a modest edge, not a massive one.
My reasoning comes down to three things:
1. Pittsburgh's defensive front vs. Cleveland's injured offensive line.
This is the biggest mismatch of the game.
2. Jaylen Warren's emergence.
Pittsburgh finally showed a legitimate running game Sunday, and that makes Rodgers considerably harder to defend.
3. Turnover potential. Pittsburgh's pressure and +2 turnover differential give the Steelers a slightly better chance of creating the one game-changing mistake that often decides low-scoring divisional games. |
Wes |
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